As in Budget 2020, the impact of the COVID Pandemic – 19 was particularly evident in Budget 2021. The new Government has settled in and has drawn up, in its own way, a national response including equipping an infectious disease hospital inherited from its predecessor.
Guyana, as countries around the world, responded in various ways, influenced by their financial resources and the policies of their governments. In the period since the last Budget the Government has been paying $ 25,000 per home and costing, according to a Government statement some $ 5.921 billion at the Budget date. We are not aware of any impact study of the COVID – 19, and no report has been published on how the Pandemic affected the lower income families and the tens of thousands of families in Region 4 who have yet to receive their COVID relief. 19. While criticizing some of the features of the Government’s COVID Relief measures such as the absence of targeting and limiting the amount to one home, the Government also helped prevent additional hardship by continuing to pay public sector workers their full pay.
This was matched by some private sector employers who continued to pay their employees largely. Unfortunately, the unskilled and lower-income workers were not so fortunate. A sales assistant, laborer, or fast food worker cannot work from home and has probably lost a significant portion of his income and is struggling to meet their needs, including paying their rents. As with the economic impact, there has been no health and well-being impact assessment of the lower income and economic class that Guyana has recorded over eight thousand cases of COVID – 19.
How long the Pandemic will last is uncertain and Guyana can count itself lucky that it seems to have escaped the harsh real impact like some other countries and places like neighboring Brazil and the United States. And that’s despite the fact that we haven’t enforced the mitigation measures as strictly as we should. Yet the economic impact cannot be overstated. Closing the borders dramatically halted the operations of entities in the hospitality sector and caused the doors of places of worship, schools and businesses to be closed. The 7.3% downturn in the non-oil economy is testament to the impact of the pandemic. However, even the best of studies will not provide a particularly accurate assessment of the impact on the economy as a whole and, in any case, it is questionable whether any of our academics or economists will undertake the this task.
The danger and consequently the impact is not over and will probably last for the better part of 2021. How will Guyana remember COVID – 19 and what will be its longer-term impact? On the economy, on health, on the welfare of the people, and on education? Studies from abroad show that the effects of scare the shocks on the economy are usually short-lived as is evident from the seventies oil shock and the global crisis of 2008. That gives some support for a little optimism hidden Minister for the economy.
As is almost always the case, it will be the poor who have been most affected by the pandemic but unfortunately and here again there are no disaggregated statistics of causes and deaths by socio-economic class. In their report ‘The impact of COVID-19 on global poverty under worsening growth and inequality’, the World Bank highlighted, citing the 2020 Shared Poverty and Prosperity Report (PSPR2020) that there are between 88 and 115 million people globally likely to do so in 2020 pushed into extreme poverty as a result of COVID-19 where households or individuals could afford to live under US $ 1.90-a-day which equates to ALL $ 402 only.
We are not that bad but exactly how much better is difficult to measure and assess. A $ 25,000 payment to households would have helped but not by far or long. To prevent abuse, the new Ministry limited the payment to households as if many families living in the same house were a matter of choice. If it were, we would not have the number of housing lot applications that the Ministry of Housing has to contend with.
As a new disease there is no evidence to quantify the long-term impact on health although international scientists have found no serious damage and the evidence is that, with a few exceptions, recovery is complete. Perhaps the most significant scar on education with poorer children is not having the same opportunities and resources to access online education. Depending on the level of student in school, the consequences of being out of school and education for only a few months could damage lifelong learning.
It is unclear how the Ministry of Education proposes to deal with this.
On the positive side, there have been many lessons: how we do business, shop, entertain and work. The world will have changed as a result of the pandemic. We need to learn from and adopt the lessons and mitigate the risks.