Growth
Real GDP is expected to grow 20.9% while non-oil GDP is forecast to grow by 6.1%. The agriculture, forestry and fishing sector is forecast to expand by 5.6% and forestry (18.5%), sugar (9.6%) and fishing (11.5%) are expected to be star performers.
The extractive mining and quarrying industries are projected to grow 39.1% in 2021. Star performers are expected to be oil and gas (46.7%); bauxite (18.4); Other mining and quarrying (19.8%). The manufacturing sector is forecast to be 7.3%, Construction 9.1% and Services 5% are the other sectors for which growth is forecast.
Inflation is forecast at 1.6 percent.
Balance of Payments
● The overall balance of payments is expected to register a lower surplus in 2021 of US $ 59.9 million compared to $ US60.6 million in 2020;
● The current account is expected to move from a deficit of US $ 651.7 million to a surplus of US $ 65.7 million;
● Export receipts are projected to increase by 46.4 percent to US $ 3,788.8 million;
● Crude oil exports are forecast to increase by US $ 1,038.6 million;
● The capital account is expected to move from a surplus of US $ 720.9 million to a deficit of US $ 5.8 million.
Ram & McRae comments
● These targets are extremely ambitious and can suffer from a number of capacity constraints. The relationship between the administration and some of our main contractors is strained and, in any event, it is questionable whether they have the workforce to deliver all the projects identified for 2021.
● Although the Minister noted keeping citizens safe from COVID-19, there does not appear to be sufficient resources or indeed a robust plan to prevent or deal with the disease including masking, social isolation, contact tracing, curry and vaccinations. One year after the disease first hit Guyana, vaccines are only now available and at a very limited rate while only available to frontline workers.
● Overcoming or mitigating the effects of the pandemic is essential to achieving the ambitious economic and social plans. With the population of Guyana, it is in the interests of human health and early recovery that we should ensure herd immunity in the shortest time possible.