TEL AVIV – In his first presidency foreign policy speech, Joe Biden had a simple message for the world: “America is back.” But restoring the credibility of US diplomacy and implementing an effective foreign policy will be an uphill battle.
To his credit, Biden is taking steps to overturn many of Donald Trump’s most damaging policies. As he noted in his speech, he has already signed the paperwork to rejoin the Paris climate agreement and reconnected with the World Health Organization.
Biden also announced that Trump’s withdrawal of the planned troops from Germany should be halted – a clear attempt to reassure the minds of European allies of alienating America. Moreover, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that the days of the United States were “rolling over in the face of Russian aggression … are over.” And he vowed to end U.S. support for the Saudi-led offensive in Yemen, and to increase diplomacy to end the disastrous war.
At the same time, Biden seems poised to uphold some of Trump’s more sensible policies. Notably, Trump was firm in his desire to avoid “silly, endless” wars in the Middle East, and withdrew US troops from Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan, resigning himself to Afghanistan’s Taliban return to power .
Biden is likely to take a similar approach (which began, to be sure, with Trump’s predecessor, Barack Obama). And for good reason: the US has spent a great deal of blood and treasure in the Middle East, and has very little to show for it.
On the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Biden has endorsed the Abraham Agreements, which Trump broke, between Israel and several Arab countries, though they represent a strategic obstacle to the Palestinian cause. While he is not expected to endorse Trump’s fake Israeli-Palestinian peace plan, he also seems unlikely to invest much political capital to advance the two-state solution – a lost cause now.
But major foreign policy tests remain before us. Start with Iran, Biden barely mentioned in his recent speech. During his campaign, Biden vowed to return to Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal, the so-called Comprehensive Joint Action Plan, which Obama negotiated and Trump left. To this end, the Biden administration will have to persuade Iran to cease uranium enrichment beyond limits set by JCPOA and agree to new negotiations, before the United States imposes its punitive economic sanctions on the country. Of course, Iran wants sanctions relief first, but a compromise is perfectly achievable.
The biggest challenge will be overcoming opposition from America’s regional allies, especially Israel, whose military is already preparing for possible offensive action against Iran. The strategic viability of such an offensive is far from clear. In 2012, the then Israeli defense minister, Ehud Barak, concluded that Iran’s nuclear program was already approaching the “immune zone,” where an attack could not expel it, because of the accumulated “knowledge, raw materials, experience” of the country. and equipment. ”
Nevertheless, Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has a proven track record as a spoiler, and the Biden administration must be careful not to allow it to reappear that role. Despite being slashed by sanctions, Iran retains considerable bargaining power. He enjoys the support of Russia and China, and Biden seems to recognize that the United States cannot afford to wage another war in the Middle East.
While Biden gave a brief shrift to Iran in his speech, he made no mention of North Korea at all. Here, the dilemma is no longer how to reverse nuclear, but rather how to mitigate any threat to American allies and the US mainland. With diplomacy constantly failing, and military action guaranteed to be an unprecedented disaster, the Biden administration has few good options.
Finally, there is the challenge of China. In his speech, Biden promised to “confront” China’s economic abuse, “counter its aggressive, coercive act,” and “push back” against its “attack” on human rights, intellectual property, and global governance. But he also promised to work with China “when it is in America’s interests to do so.”
It will not be easy to walk this line. An excessive preventive approach would allow China to further encroach on US allied territory in Asia, erode American leadership in high-tech industries, and challenge the dominance of the US dollar. But an overly harsh approach would overlook much-needed cooperation on shared challenges like climate change, and increase the risk of a potentially catastrophic military conflict.
For the United States, the key to balancing these risks is to focus on managing strategic competition, not asserting dominance. The days of US hegemony are over, and America’s dysfunctional political system is incapable of counteracting China’s development strategy even by upgrading its own obsolete infrastructure. The only way to reintroduce an increasingly assertive China is through cooperation with empowered allies. Fortunately, Biden is aware of the shortcomings of the United States and has pledged to build a global alliance of democracies for the exact purpose of competing with China.
But goal setting is only the first step. If the United States wants to work effectively with allies, let alone competitors, it needs credibility. And that’s rare these days.
The international credibility of a country – and, therefore, the effectiveness of its foreign policy – must be built on strong domestic foundations. But, from its botched pandemic response to the storming of the US Capitol on Jan. 6, American political dysfunction has been on display lately. The “City on a Hill” has lost its elegance.
US foreign policy suffers from endemic inconsistency. Even if Biden manages to reach agreements with allies and rivals, who’s to say that his successor won’t just back them up, as Trump did during his term? With the US Senate voted to rebuke him with the crowd on Jan. 6, Trump himself may run again in 2024. And he could win, most of all because he might not face incumbent. (At the age of 78, Biden is already the oldest president in US history.)
So, yes, America is about to rejoin the rest of the world. But whether the power of his example will convince skeptical partners, as Biden hopes, remains to be seen.
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2021.
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