Coronavirus: Here are our endgame options; our behavior will determine where we end
By Dr. Zulfikar Bux
Assistant Professor of Emergency Medicine, Vanderbilt Medical Center
Kaieteur News – You should be fully aware that we are at another stage of the pandemic where there is a worldwide surge of infections. Scientists associate this surge with the new fluctuations currently circulating and their ability to thrive and roll further as humans continue to act irresponsibly. In Guyana, it is no different as the general disregard for the current situation continues to rise. This has clearly led to an increase in cases and deaths to the point where we are at the center of another epidemic. This period of increase in infections and deaths will last for weeks to come and our outcome will be determined by how we behave during this time. We now have ways to get to the end of the tunnel but our current choices and actions will determine whether we do so and the number of casualties we face along the way. Today, I will share with you the possible consequences that remain with us given the current situation.
Complete eradication of the virus and return to normalcy
Although this may seem more unlikely as mutations and infections continue to rise, there is still a small possibility of it occurring. It will take a few years and will mean that there is worldwide cooperation to ensure fair coverage of a vaccine. In addition, a major change in behavior patterns will be required to curb the spread of new virus mutations, the more the virus is mutated, the more likely it is to become a permanent fight with us. I am not optimistic that this option will happen given the current patterns of behavior and the unfair and slow distribution of vaccine so far.
Regular surges with deaths
The cyclical rise and fall of infections and deaths is the pattern we have faced so far. So far we have experienced periods of high infections and deaths followed by periods of low infections and deaths. The increase in deaths and infections seems to correlate each time we are exposed to a new variant of the virus. If we’re not careful, this virus will continue to roll in and evolve into more lethal and vaccine-resistant forms. If this were to happen, then we would be stuck with it for the foreseeable future and facing cycles of infection surges followed by increased mortality. There is a decent chance that this option will become the long-term reality once we remain irresponsible and do not achieve the desired vaccination rates.
Tape the virus enough for us to thrive
There is a strong possibility that this option will happen by the end of this year but will take more commitment and responsible behavior. First, we will need to ensure stricter compliance with prevention guidelines so that we prevent the virus from spreading and rolling into more vaccine-resistant forms. This will then buy us enough time to ramp up vaccination rates and reduce the spread of the virus and its ability to mutate into more deadly and infectious forms. Although we may not be able to fully eradicate the virus with this option, we may be able to dilute it enough to contain it and cause milder infections such as the common cold or flu. This appears to be the likely route for us at present but stricter prevention guidelines need to be adhered to, along with general vaccine coverage.
Vaccine! Vaccine! Vaccine!
Only so far have we been able to vaccinate part of Guyana’s population. But our goal of 80 percent vaccination is needed to contain the epidemic. Currently, the current vaccines are not approved for children. This means that almost 100 percent of adult vaccination is needed if we are to control the virus and be able to return to normalcy here. If we fail, then there is the possibility of a vaccine-resistant strain forming and this will cause further destruction for years to come. This means we all have to play our part in getting vaccinated and making sure we educate and encourage others to do the same.
Falling short is not an option given the consequences ahead. Be vaccinated and be part of the solution to this pandemic rather than being part of the problem.