The Government should conduct random population tests
Kaieteur News – It is unclear how many of the more than 50 people who died from COVID-19-related outbreaks over the last month were vaccinated. Given that it takes about three weeks for fair immunity to develop after the first injection, we can safely say that a significant proportion of those deaths would have been saved had those individuals been vaccinated, assuming most people who died recently vaccinated.
Of the more than 533,000 people who have died in the United States as of March 31, nearly 95 percent were 65 or older. This is broadly in line with what is happening in the United Kingdom in relation to deaths.
In Guyana, the Ministry of Health treats victim age data as a state secret. Although all deaths are reported and the age of the victim provided, there was no aggregated analysis of the victims’ age, information that can be routinely obtained in the United States. But it has been suggested that Guyana’s high-risk group is those aged 55 and over.
Initially, the Guyana government targeted people over 65. But there seems to be huge hesitation and so within two weeks, people over the age of 50 were invited for the vaccine. It seems again that there is still huge hesitation and the vaccines are now being given to people aged 40 and over.
Given global trends, it would make better sense for the government to try to vaccinate as many as 55 people before expanding into lower age groups. But given the vagueness of the vaccine, the government did the next best thing and is now offering the vaccine to people aged 40 and over.
People are still dying and most of those who have died recently have been over 55, although a few younger people have died. More effort is needed to motivate more of the high-risk individuals, older than 55, to give the vaccine. Otherwise, deaths are likely to increase.
There are simply not enough vaccines to vaccinate all those 40 to 50 year olds. There are more than 100,000 Guyanese between the ages of 40 and 50. And it should be remembered that the government must keep enough vaccines to give people a second dose. And while the number of reported vaccinations is increasing, this is because the age limit has been lowered to 40 years.
However, the government has no choice but to lower the age range. If the deaths fall and the number of infections continues to rise, the government may have no choice but to extend the vaccine to people over the age of 24. However, this would have to be subject to adequate supplies of the vaccines, which is not guaranteed.
The government has said it is in talks with Johnson and Johnson. If a deal happens quickly, it would be a game changer for Guyana, because this is a single dose vaccine.
Vaccine hesitation is now the main stumbling block to curb deaths; poor enforcement seems to be the main barrier to stopping the spread of the virus in Guyana.
So the government can’t afford to be working on just one front. It must intensify its efforts at three levels – vaccination, enforcing social restrictions and testing.
Although vaccines are short, test kits are not. Since January infections have increased. And it is high time the government conducted random population testing to determine the prevalence of infections.
The numbers raise questions about the effectiveness of government tests. As more tests are done, more cases emerge. It is therefore necessary to determine only what percentage of the population is exposed to the virus and this can only be done in the random days of New York state in the early days of the pandemic. Currently one in 10 people in New York has tested positive. This is a surprisingly high rate.
The United States has the highest number of deaths and infections in the world. Adapted for testing, Guyana has a higher infection rate than the United States. And in terms of mortality, Guyana’s deaths per capita are closing in the United States. We are in a much worse state than most people believe.
(The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of this newspaper.)