Will Trump be sacked?
DEAR EDITOR,
As your paper reported and as mentioned, President Donald Trump was ousted in the U.S. House of Representatives on Wednesday. That does not mean being dismissed. Only Parliament can move it. His court case goes to Parliament for a hearing and a verdict. Will the President be convicted? Not likely!
A guilty verdict means immediate removal from office. With only a few days left in his four-year term, this writer’s analysis is that Trump will end his term Wednesday morning and fly out to Miami.
Most Guyanese I spoke to in Guyana and in the diaspora do not understand the concept of impeachment according to the US constitution. They are of the wrong belief that an impeachment equates to removal from office. “Trump blamed it. Congress enforces it. He went. “Many Americans also hold the same belief. The meaning of the concept needs clarification. An impeachment is not removed from office. I happened to be studying US constitutional law when I was doing a PhD in Political Science and an MS in Educational Administration. Constitutional law was mandatory for both disciplines. So, I have knowledge of the process.
Simply put, impeachment is the equivalent of an indictment in court. It means an allegation or charge against the President. The House examined the evidence and held a debate. That was followed by a vote among the 435 elected members in the Lower House. An indictment required a simple majority vote. The matter will be sent to Parliament where a trial will take place. Conviction requires a ‘yes’ vote by only 67 members (a two-thirds majority) of the 100 elected members in the Upper House. That is a most difficult task. No American President was ever convicted (dismissed).
Trump is the only President in US history to be coerced more than once. He was forced last year but was not convicted. That vote happened along party lines – Democrats voted to impeach while Republicans voted to expel him. The current impeachment accuses Trump of “high crime and misconduct,” and for “inciting violence against the U.S. government.” A dozen Republicans voted to impeach Trump this week along with Democrats.
What happens next? It is unclear whether the issue will be raised for trial. The clock is ticking and may run out of time. A trial and vote must be held before Tuesday, Trump’s last full day in office. Given the limited time, with a trial taking at least two days, Parliament can ignore the process. In order for a trial to take place, the Senate Majority leader must arrange the hearing. Currently, Republican Mitch McConnell. He may not want to touch the issue fearing the political consequence for himself and his party. He may ignore the trial request, saying time does not allow for it or find some other delay process. This leads to the natural death of the impeachment once President-elect Joe Biden took an oath on Wednesday morning.
McConnel has been quiet on his plan. McConnel’s majority leadership ends after the next Vice President was sworn in Wednesday. The Senate is tied 50-50 on Wednesday. The Vice President, who is the ‘Chairman’ of Parliament, casts a tie vote. Kamala Harris, a Democrat, will hold that position from Jan. 21.
Currently, all Democrats (50) are planning to vote for a conviction. Ten Republican senators plan to support the move to expel Trump from the Presidency. The indictment falls short of seven for conviction. Two other Republicans may support the vote. Five more Senators would be needed to dismiss Trump from his post. If the vote is successful, the Vice President will be sworn in as the next President. That would be Mike Pence. He would inherit all the benefits of a job including a high $ 200K annual pension and security just for being President for a few days or even a day.
McConnell will decide Trump’s faith. It will probably not arrange a trial, ending the impeachment process.
Truly,
Vishnu Bisram (Political Scientist)