Winter full of discontent
Kaieteur News – Danger lurks around the corner. The spike in coronavirus cases since the beginning of this month shows that there are more deaths ahead … far more deaths.
Even with a vaccine due to arrive sometime later this year, the situation facing Guyana is appalling. Unless coronavirus infections are eradicated within the next three months, the introduction of the vaccine will lead to a mass rush.
The spike in cases in Moraikabai over the past week should not have happened. Towards the end of last year, infections had increased in that community. Everyone’s mass testing should have taken place, bearing in mind the experiences of other similar communities. Such tests would not have exhausted the Ministry of Health’s testing kits to have tested everyone in that community. He should do that now.
A crisis is brewing. And unfortunately, people are not interested. Every death becomes another statistic. Care and concern for the dead has been thrown out the window. People – government and civil society included – are indifferent to the unfolding human tragedy.
By the time the vaccine got here, deaths would have reached 300. When this column first touched this number, some people reprimanded it in God’s name. Now, we’ll be lucky if we can limit COVID-19 deaths to 300 before the end of June.
We have not learned anything from the experience of other countries. Sixteen thousand people died on Wednesday worldwide and on that single day more than 740,000, nearly the entire population of Guyana, were infected.
The situation in the United States, the United Kingdom and elsewhere in Europe is very serious. Lockdowns is in effect and the next few weeks are expected to be the worst since the pandemic began.
More than half a million people have died since the end of November 2020. By the time you read this, more than two million people would have died as far from the pandemic.
Winter has realized the world’s worst fears. Just as the vaccine was developed, an additional 20 million people were infected in December alone. And for the first 13 days of this year, another 10 million are infected.
What all this is saying is that it will be difficult to find vaccines for poor countries. The rich countries buy most of what is produced because their energies are rising.
A big debate is brewing about the effectiveness of the Chinese-developed SINOVAC vaccine. Some countries have reported high efficacy rates for this vaccine, but Brazil claims the vaccine has just over 50 percent. This is not going to make that vaccine one of the viable candidates for mass vaccinations when two vaccines with much higher efficacy rates are already authorized for use.
This is a major obstacle for developing countries as the SINOVAC vaccine is expected to add to the dwindling global stocks and allow developing countries to access supplies.
At present, global production is not meeting the demand for the two main vaccines authorized in the US and the UK. And with increasing cases, the timelines for poor countries to receive their quotas will be pushed even further back.
Guyana is expected to receive vaccines under the COVAX initiative for about 20 percent of its population. However, it is estimated that for herd immunity to develop, Guyana would need to vaccinate at least 75 percent of its population. The number of vaccines to achieve this target will not be available anytime soon, unless there is a change in the SINOVAC vaccine effectiveness score.
So unless this pandemic is slowed down locally, Guyana is aiming for a massive increase in deaths. This cannot be allowed to happen and so there must be a new approach, one aimed at curbing the rate of new infections, while the country awaits vaccination.
By the time the vaccine arrives here, Guyana should have put itself in a position to report no active cases. Unless this happens, Guyana is heading for a worse disaster than the Titanic and Jonestown combined.
The currently authorized vaccines will take too long to get here. And Guyana is likely to experience the same slowdown and supply constraints experienced in other countries. The United States should have vaccinated more than 40 million people already; they are now only about 10 million. And they have a population of 300 million.
The Health Minister must adopt an interim strategy aimed at curbing new infections in the shortest time possible. This may have to include mass testing of entire communities, imposing a tougher curfew and closing non-essential businesses.
Otherwise, when the vaccine comes, the number of cases will cause human stampede. And this is not what anyone wants.
(The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of this newspaper.)